DANGER AWAITING THE GOVERNMENT
JUNE 2, 2004
By Kemal BALCI
It was a custom by the Turks in olden times to call “Agha”, the eldest of the three sons of a King Father; “Adsız” (Nameless) the middle one and “Tekin” the youngest. Upon the death of the father, Tekin was to inherit the real property such as land, landed property and authority; Agha was to inherit movables such as sheep and horse herds, soldiers and army, the middle son was to inherit nothing. He doesn’t even have a name.

Nevertheless, Adsız used to be given a sword and a horse and told to wander and find out his lot. All the Adsız middle sons were to create their own chances.

Quite reasonably, because of this, most of world conquerors are issued from Adsız sons.

Mehmet Zeki Pakalın

Dictionary of the Idioms and

Terms Used in Ottoman History

Published by the Ministry of

National Education

Istanbul, 1993

Third Volume, page 445

BUTTERFLY EFFECT

One year and one month after the occupation of Iraq by American and British soldiers:

The Arab resistance, Sunnite and Shiite alike, in the south of the 32. parallel of the latitude has been on the increase in a ferocity not witnessed even in the hot war time. The notorious archives that leaked or let be leaked from the jail Al-Gharib relating the tortures and rapes committed totally demolished the respectability of the coalition forces. Six month before the Presidential election in the USA, President Bush has already lost the popular support to a great extent. The US occupation Army in Iraq is so perplexed that they even bomb meeting places of people such as mosques and wedding tents by warplanes. In a move to distract the hatred and reaction of the international community towards the occupation forces in Iraq, Israel rushed to the help of America by razing Gaza Strip to the ground in a bloody operation.

The Talabani-Barzani partnership, striving to become a state in the North of the 32. Parallel of the latitude, is disturbed from the recent developments. They are already terrorized with the thought that the Arab hatred will converge upon them after the American withdrawal. The Kurdish tribes, that were against the proposed presence the Turkish Troops on Iraqi soil only a year ago, now deems the protection of Turkish Troops to be the only remedy against the Arab threat.

Turcoman leaders in the area are being assassinated one after another. Suspicions are strengthened that behind the crimes lays a Kurdo-American cooperation.

The US will deliver the authority in Iraq to the Provisional Iraqi Administration on June the 30th. Yet, uncertainty persists as to whether it will be any different form the present collaborationist administration. It is getting clearer that the US will shrink the occupation in such a way as to keep only the strategical points and petrol basins under control until the end of the next year.

The reasonable expectation is that the US will replace the tired troops in Iraq with those to be transferred from the Far East. The preparation of the part of the US for establishing a new administration in Iraq seems to be disturbing Ankara. The unexpected recent visits of the British Premier, Blair, and the prince heir apparent to the Throne, Andrew, make one think that negotiations may be under way for Turkish Troops to be sent to Iraq.

At the NATO Summit to take place on June the 20th the US President Bush might formalise this request. If a NATO resolution and UN Security Council resolution were adopted in this sense, Turkey would be left without a recourse.

In view of these oncoming ever-growing pressures, the Government might only seek refuge with the EU. Yet, a NATO resolution to be adopted at Istanbul this refuge might easily disappear in a short time.

The Anglo-American pressure upon the Government seems to have created a wave of unrest within the Party AKP. Prime Minister Erdoğan is not willing to assume the responsibility sending Turkish Troops to Iraq as an occupation army. There seems to be no way out for the Prime Minister but insist that a new Parliamentary decision is a must for sending troops.

Moved by such a consideration he raises no objection to views voiced by partisans of the Political Islam and Milli Görüş (the line of the forerunning political parties, now banned, of the same wing). One may even say that he even encourages them by keeping silent. The number of deputies is on the increase who believe that at least 70 AKP deputies, including the Speaker Arınç, would follow so rigid a line that they would rather quit the party than accept a proposal to send troops.

It is not difficult foresee that some 100 deputies, which comprise the deputies in the AKP, coming from MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) origin, would vote against the proposal even if it were tabled by the Executive. Keeping in view the fact that the number of requested troops is, this time multiples of ten thousands, it would not be a prophecy to say that the opposition would be quite strong.

One might say that the approaching summer is pregnant for the political chaos in view of the fact that some 30 CHP (Republican People’s Party) deputies took position against the party direction.

One might say that we could be very rapidly dragged towards a government crisis if one paid attention to the criticisms rising from the circles of big business and the Union of Chambers, the organisation of the Anatolian capital, alike. In case this process quickens at the surmised pace we might quite possibly witness a vawe of deputy transfers resulting in an increase of party representation in the Assembly as well as efforts to set up a party of the centre. As a first step, the Nationalist Movement Party and the Happiness Party might succeed in forming Parliamentary Groups in the Assembly. Moreover, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan might find himself forced into the long awaited settlement of accounts with Abdullah Gül which he had been postponing in this chaotic atmosphere. Erdoğan and Gül might be quickly dragged into a settlement of accounts overshadowed with the inescapable choice between sending troops and letting loose the government.

As for the military circles, the due retirement of the Commanders of the Land Forces and of the Gendarmerie on August the 30th might trigger The replacements will be made known following a violent war of attrition. Given the recent statements reflected by media over bribery paid in military adjudications lend strength to such an expectation. Some allegations linking top level commanders with certain monetary movements taking place in the sunken banks, chiefly in the bank of the Uzans, are quite likely to be disclosed in such a way as to escalate the present political chaos .

It is always plausible for an insignificant wave set in motion by the wings of a small butterfly in the US to produce a hurricane in Ankara.

NEGROPONTE . EARL OF DARKNESS

America will soon open the most crowded Embassy of the world at Baghdad. Some 4000 men and women will serve at the Embassy which will begin work officially on June the 30rd. The point of real importance is the identity of the new Ambassador. The Ambassador who will take the mission over from Paul Bremer is John Dimitri Negroponte.

He lastly served as American Representative at the UN. He is a veteran diplomat with 37 years of service behind. He was previously the American Ambassador to Philippines, Mexico and Honduras. He was sharply criticized in the Senate for his behaviour in Honduras.

He was accused of remaining insensitive to human right violations committed in Honduras in the years 1981 -- 1985. He is an American citizen of Greek origin like George Tenet, resigned CIA Chief. Born in 1939 in London to a rich Greek ship-owner, he graduated from Yale in 1960 and was admitted to the Foreign Service at Washington in the same year.

He served in the Political Section of the American Embassy in Vietnam in the years 1964 -- 1968, hottest years of the Vietnam war, and was included in the American delegation conducting the Vietnam peace talks in Paris in 1968 -- 1969. An interesting feature of Negroponte is his being related to the British Royal Family. He enjoys a blood relationship with the Queen Elizabeth like Presidert Bush. The father of Mrs. Villiers, wife of Negroponte, is nobody but Colonel Sir Charles Villiers, who long served in the Special Forces Unit, British Army. His mother in law is Countess Maria Jose de la Barre d’Erquelinnes. Owing to such ties of his wife, Negroponte is considered naturally to be of the Aristocracy. Mrs. Negroponte (Villiers) , a graduate of the prestigious London School of Economics, is a practicing trade lawyer in Washington.

One may interprete Negroponte’s new mission in the sense that now the control buttons in Iraq are handed over from Pentagon to the State Department. One may find it note worthy in this connection that W. Safire, very close to or even a member of the Bush Administration, points out to the long standing friction between Pentagon and State Secretary C. Powell in the following words: <> The appointement as US Ambassador to Baghdad of an influential person having a record

stained in Honduras and in Vietnam and connections to the “Special Forces” gives one a fair idea about the intention of the USA in respect to Iraq in the new period after June the 30 th. We must ponder very seriously over the prospect of sending Turkish troops to occupied Iraq that will definitely be thrown into a dirty war. Having twice succeded in avoiding the risk of sending Turkish troops to Iraq, Erdoğan seems this time to be facing a real trouble. A grasshoper hops once and once again but not the third time ….

TIME IS BAD, AGENDA HEAVY

It seems that a number of pressures expected to occur one after another in a short period of time would soon baffle and terribly squeeze the Erdoğan Government into corner. Even a short glance at the immediate issues would suffice to convince one that the field of manoeuvres of the Government was extremely reduced.

** USA and UK are about to get a Resolution from the UN Security Council. The Resolution may deprive the Government of the invaluable trump card behind which it had been taking refuge long since The Resotion that foresees UN Forces to operate within the NATO framework would not only lay the occupation of Iraq into an international case but also provide the opportunity for the tired coalition forces to be replaced by fresh forces.

** The occupation of Iraq and the deployment of a multinational force over there will again be discussed by the G 8 leaderb convenening in Georgia on June the 9 th. It should be underlined that Prime Minister Erdoğan will also attend the meeting.

** Foreign Ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Countries are going to meet in Istanbul on June the 26 th. The main topic will no doubt be Iraq. The NATO Summit, that will immediately follow the OIC meeting, will provide reason for the Foreign Ministers to discuss the US proposed Great Middle East Inıtiative besides Iraq.

** The NATO Summit will take place on June the 28th. The topic will definitely be Iraq and GMEI. The US would try to break the European resistance to Iraq Plan represented by the Franco-German axis, and also to convince Turkey to send Turkish troops to Iraq and Afghanistan as well as to assume the role of the “central country”.

** On June the 30th, the US Embassy will be officially opened at Baghdad. Negroponte will take over the duty from Bremer.

** At the beginning of July, the OIC Foreign Ministers and the EU dignateries will come together in Istanbul. They will discuss the role formulated by NATO Summit for Islamic Countries. The fact that the US Plan for the Great Middle East Inıtiative comprises 22 Islamic countries attaches further importance to this meeting.

** At the beginning of August the Supreme Military Council will decide the successors of the Commanders of the Landed Forces and of the Gendarmerie. The new composition of the top military command would of course influence the proposed sending of Turkish troops to Iraq .

** The National Assembly, expected to go on vacation at the beginning of July, might be called to reconvene in August to vote on a Government proposal to send large scale Turkish troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. If not, the Bush Administration will have to wait untill Autumn, since the Assembly is to reconvene in October when Ankara will be heavily busy in a bid to get a date from the EU to start membership negotiations. If Washington manages to convince her European allies to act in that direction, sending troops may be placed before the Turkish Government as a secret condition .

This compressed political agenda might coincide with the appearance of a relative economic weakening to be witnessed at early summer . Some methods of “controlled instability” are used, though not quite often, in international relations as an important element of pressure. By slightly playing with the triangle of rate, interest and stock exchanges, one might produce a “butterfly effect.”

A Government may not be always able to cope with pressures coming simultaneously from four directions. If and when acted in the desired direction, economic, political and social pressures are lifted from Turkey. The objet of “controlled instability” is nothing but to achieve the desired “conformity.”

The bitter truth from the view-point of the Erdoğan Government is the fact that time, no matter how it is cruel, is bound to flow. A new day will of course arrive in the Future.

ROAD JUNCTURE

The Erdoğan Government is being quickly drifted to the road juncture waiting for it and it will arrive at it sooner or later even if it can manage to travel through a number of dangerous sharp bends.

To intervene actively in the region under American protection and aid for the sake of remaining in power or to cease to follow Super powers at the cost of a farewell to politics. It is well known that Erdoğan is being influenced by his very closed entourage that does not tend to fall apart from their genetical codes imbued with. the << islamic>> references . So it is not totally out of question that he may act as a << suicide commando>> risking the demolition of both the government and the party. The only other alternative is to seek refuge under the wings of the US. Yet, it appears that the EU also expects the same thing from Turkey in view of the islamic danger rising from the Near East as the US. The wisest card that EU may play seems to be the use of Turkey as a buffer state thanks to its strong military equipment in order to keep off the imminent and obvious danger from her boundaries .

If Erdoğan agrees, under pressure, to become the << police force>> of the US, then he is bound to face the breakup in the Party and eventually the fall from power. If he turns his face to neighbouring moslem countries, being disappointed by US and EU, as foreseen by the IISS, he may domestically strike the ship to rocks. It is not hard to foresee that such an initiative, bound to endanger the secular setup of Turkey, would cause very serious turbulences and distress. In the past not a single government could overcome such turbulences. One should be stupid to believe that the Erdoğan government can.

In short, every direction is laden with dangers for Erdoğan. He may easily fall into a steep cliff. He may be in need of a horse, as Shakespeare made the King to utter, : <> Though he proved at his first trial that he is not a good rider, who knows? Old Turks could be right to establish the custom. They might have known something. It is necessary to give a horse to the middle son and to be patient for his becoming a <>

What a destiny is our destiny !! We are again to find a horse and an Adsız.

By Kemal BALCI

Translation : Sinem SONUVAR