GENERAL STAFF WAGES TWO-FRONT BATTLE, AGAINST COUP PLOTTERS AND GÜLENISTS JUNE 19, 2009 By Halil M. KARAVELİ ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALYIST
Once again, commentators raise the question whether there is a risk of a military coup in Turkey. There is no reason at all to believe that the General staff entertains any such thoughts. However, recent developments have nevertheless provided a reminder that the military’s position remains delicate. The Chief of the General staff, General Ilker Başbuğ, is in fact engaged in an awkward battle on two fronts, against old coup habits in the military, and against the challenge posed by the Islamic movement of Fethullah Gülen.detail >
VISION OR ILLUSION? AHMET DAVUTOGLU'S STATE OF HRAMONY IN REGIONAL RELATIONS JUNE 5, 2009 By M. K. KAYA and Halil M. KARAVELİ ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALYIST
During the nearly seven years of rule by the Justice and development party, AKP, Turkey has deepened its relations in particular with the Muslim Middle East, what has been termed its “strategic depth”. The main theorist of Turkey’s evolving foreign policy priorities, Ahmet Davutoglu, was recently appointed foreign minister. Davutoglu has already had a pivotal role as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chief foreign policy advisor. As foreign minister, he will be directly responsible for the further implementation and for the ultimate testing of his ideas. They rest on an assumption of the possibility of achieving a state of harmony in Turkey’s regional relations, an assumption that is likely unrealistic.detail >
ANKARA'S GROWING REALISM ON THE NABUCCO PROJECT MAY 22, 2009 By M.K. KAYA and Svante E. CORNELL ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALIST
The Nabucco pipeline is key to Europe’s diversification of natural gas supply, but faces numerous problems. Turkey has been a problem country for Nabucco given the low level of coordination of Turkish policy on the issue and Ankara’s exaggerated demands. Nevertheless, Ankara now appears to have adopted a more realistic policy. However, Ankara’s stance on Nabucco and its rapprochement with Armenia did considerable damage to the project by putting into question Azerbaijan’s participation. Indeed, while Turkey appears less of a problem than a few months ago, the ball is now in Baku.detail >
SÜLEYMAN DEMIREL'S ODYSSEY FROM CONSERVATISM TO SECULARISM MAY 22, 2009 By Halil M. KARAVELİ ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALIST
Süleyman Demirel, the grand old man of Turkish politics, aspires to revive the defunct center right which used to rule Turkey, creating an alternative to the AKP. However, Demirel no longer appeals to the conservative majority that composed the constituency of the center right. Indeed, he is accused of having betrayed the historical mission of Turkish conservatism by allying himself with the nationalist-secularist military-bureaucratic establishment. Demirel’s evolution in fact personifies the radicalization of republican state ideology.detail >
