GENERAL STAFF WAGES TWO-FRONT BATTLE, AGAINST COUP PLOTTERS AND GÜLENISTS JUNE 19, 2009 By Halil M. KARAVELÝ ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALYIST
Once again, commentators raise the question whether there is a risk of a military coup in Turkey. There is no reason at all to believe that the General staff entertains any such thoughts. However, recent developments have nevertheless provided a reminder that the military’s position remains delicate. The Chief of the General staff, General Ilker Baþbuð, is in fact engaged in an awkward battle on two fronts, against old coup habits in the military, and against the challenge posed by the Islamic movement of Fethullah Gülen.
IRANIAN CRISIS CATCHES THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT OFF GUARD JUNE 19, 2009 By Svante E. CORNELL ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALYIST
After two decades of deep tensions with Iran, the AKP government has largely rebuilt relations with Turkey’s historical rival and neighbor. Yet its responses to the Iranian crisis – in which Prime Minister Erdoðan was embarrassingly among the first to congratulate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad upon his highly questionable re-election – appears to question the foundations of this rapprochement. Moreover, it indicates the limitations of Ankara’s newly found “zero-problem” foreign policy, which appears to mean that Turkey has no opinions on the basis of either interests, values or principles in its neighborhood.
VISION OR ILLUSION? AHMET DAVUTOGLU'S STATE OF HRAMONY IN REGIONAL RELATIONS JUNE 5, 2009 By M. K. KAYA and Halil M. KARAVELÝ ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALYIST
During the nearly seven years of rule by the Justice and development party, AKP, Turkey has deepened its relations in particular with the Muslim Middle East, what has been termed its “strategic depth”. The main theorist of Turkey’s evolving foreign policy priorities, Ahmet Davutoglu, was recently appointed foreign minister. Davutoglu has already had a pivotal role as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chief foreign policy advisor. As foreign minister, he will be directly responsible for the further implementation and for the ultimate testing of his ideas. They rest on an assumption of the possibility of achieving a state of harmony in Turkey’s regional relations, an assumption that is likely unrealistic.
TURKEY AND THE UNITED STATES: EASING RELATIONS, UNCERTAIN FUTURE JUNE 5, 2009 By Tülin DALOÐLU ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALYIST
The relationship between the United States and Turkey has traditionally relied heavily on military cooperation. However, President Barack Obama’s April trip to Turkey created an impetus to build a stronger economic connection – provided that businesses find a profitable incentive to work together. But the most significant step toward “normalizing” relations between the countries came when the U.S. recognized that the separatist Kurdish organization PKK poses a threat not only to Turkey but also to America, and Iraq, as well. It was a step destined to ease the tension that has characterized, even poisoned the U.S.-Turkish relationship since the invasion of Iraq.
ANKARA'S GROWING REALISM ON THE NABUCCO PROJECT MAY 22, 2009 By M.K. KAYA and Svante E. CORNELL ISSUED BY ISDP, TURKEY ANALIST
The Nabucco pipeline is key to Europe’s diversification of natural gas supply, but faces numerous problems. Turkey has been a problem country for Nabucco given the low level of coordination of Turkish policy on the issue and Ankara’s exaggerated demands. Nevertheless, Ankara now appears to have adopted a more realistic policy. However, Ankara’s stance on Nabucco and its rapprochement with Armenia did considerable damage to the project by putting into question Azerbaijan’s participation. Indeed, while Turkey appears less of a problem than a few months ago, the ball is now in Baku.
